Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Kazakhstan
  • Uzbekistan
  • United Arab Emirates

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $534,631$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591,955.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 155.1)}}\) (asimptote \(591,955.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,712$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,322.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 178.4)}}\) (asimptote \(39,322.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72,559$ on 2020-10-19

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $304,876$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,415,230.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 283.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,415,230.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,263$ on 2020-10-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,219$ on 2020-10-19

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $430,678$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{513,825.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 182.2)}}\) (asimptote \(513,825.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,317$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,317.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 153.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,317.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,829$ on 2020-10-19

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,594$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,810.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(97,810.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,114$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,190.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,190.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,080$ on 2020-10-19

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,224$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,015.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 163.0)}}\) (asimptote \(85,015.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $302$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.2)}}\) (asimptote \(293.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,239$ on 2020-10-19

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,526$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,310.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 122.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,310.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,111$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,176.8}{1 + 10^{-0.847 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,176.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,552$ on 2020-10-19

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,832$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,140.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 147.0)}}\) (asimptote \(117,140.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $710$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{624.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 85.1)}}\) (asimptote \(624.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,516$ on 2020-10-19

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $342,583$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335,797.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(335,797.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,201$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,231.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,231.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,487$ on 2020-10-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Kazakhstan recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Uzbekistan recovered 75%
Israel recovered 67%
United Arab Emirates recovered 58%
Bahrain recovered 54%
Tajikistan recovered 53%
India recovered 26%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,915$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,409.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(56,409.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(26.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-10-19

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,623$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,760.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,760.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,768$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,751.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 135.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,751.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,710$ on 2020-10-19

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,523$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,277.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 150.8)}}\) (asimptote \(68,277.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $531$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{559.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 136.7)}}\) (asimptote \(559.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,388$ on 2020-10-19

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,517$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,054.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 156.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117,054.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $466$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{392.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 62.5)}}\) (asimptote \(392.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,240$ on 2020-10-19